Tuesday, January 11, 2005

Crazy Hand of the Week (1/2)

I've been thinking about this hand for a while, and it still amazes me. I wasn't involved in the pot, but it was about 5 on the flop of JT9 rainbow. It went

check (1) | bet (2) | raise (3) | fold (4) | call (5) | fold (1) | rereaise (2) | call (3) | call (5)

Turn 8

bet (2) | raise (3) | reraise (5) | cap (2) | call (3) | call (5)

I'm thinking (2) has KQ at this point and (3)/(5) have Qx

River 8

bet (2) | call (3) | raise (5) | call (2) | call (3)

(2) shows KQ
(3) show QJ
(5) shows 88

The thing that amazes me is that (5) didn't have the presense of mind on the flop to realize even if he hits his 8 on the turn he is still so slayed in the pot, since he obiously needs to boat up since someone is going to have a Q in that hand. I guess I'm not super suprised, and those sorts of plays are what you want to see at a table, but even hitting his 8 is scary.

Doing a calculation of the odds, on the flop he is at 2.0 - 2.1% depending on what I think the other two players had given past hands. On the turn he jumps to a ~21% chance if an 8 hits, and ~5% if the board pairs. That's a tough call on the flop for me, but to each their own.

Just thought I would share. The craziest part about it was that nobody, save one person that wasn't in the hand said a thing about it, except vvvvnh. That's what got me thinking about how bad it was.


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